Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Wednesday 06 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 72241 (+2532) 1236987 (+25149) 199684 (+12648) 965062 (+9969)
United Kingdom 29427 (+693) 194990 (+4406) 0 (+0) 165563 (+3713)
Italy 29315 (+236) 213013 (+1075) 85231 (+2352) 98467 (-1513)
Spain 25613 (+185) 250561 (+2260) 154718 (+3085) 70230 (-1010)
France 25531 (+330) 170551 (+1089) 52736 (+1365) 92284 (-606)
Belgium 8016 (+92) 50509 (+242) 12441 (+63) 30052 (+87)
Brazil 7921 (+593) 114715 (+6871) 48221 (+2406) 58573 (+3872)
Germany 6993 (+0) 167007 (+855) 135100 (+2400) 24914 (-1545)
Iran 6340 (+63) 99970 (+1323) 80475 (+1096) 13155 (+164)
Netherlands 5168 (+86) 41087 (+317) 0 (+0) 35919 (+231)
China 4633 (+0) 82881 (+1) 77853 (+87) 395 (-86)
Canada 4039 (+197) 62038 (+1422) 26938 (+1516) 31061 (-291)
Turkey 3520 (+59) 129491 (+1832) 73285 (+5119) 52686 (-3346)
Sweden 2854 (+85) 23216 (+495) 4074 (+0) 16288 (+410)
Mexico 2271 (+117) 24905 (+1434) 15938 (+2491) 6696 (-1174)
Switzerland 1795 (+11) 30009 (+28) 25400 (+200) 2814 (-183)
India 1693 (+127) 49400 (+2963) 14142 (+1295) 33565 (+1541)
Ecuador 1569 (+0) 31881 (+0) 3433 (+0) 26879 (+0)
Russia 1451 (+95) 155370 (+10102) 19865 (+1770) 134054 (+8237)
Peru 1444 (+100) 51189 (+3817) 15413 (+986) 34332 (+2731)
Ireland 1339 (+20) 21983 (+211) 13386 (+0) 7258 (+191)
Portugal 1074 (+11) 25702 (+178) 1743 (+31) 22885 (+136)
Indonesia 872 (+8) 12071 (+484) 2197 (+243) 9002 (+233)
Romania 841 (+23) 13837 (+325) 5454 (+185) 7542 (+117)
Poland 716 (+18) 14431 (+425) 4280 (+185) 9435 (+222)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 253339 (+6025) 3640670 (+82349) 1160921 (+46322)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 248185 ( +2669) 3509221 ( +38033) 1160367 ( +29321)
Thu 07 May 2020 250618 ( +2432) 3544343 ( +35122) 1188167 ( +27800)
Fri 08 May 2020 252830 ( +2212) 3576718 ( +32375) 1214428 ( +26260)
Sat 09 May 2020 254837 ( +2008) 3606511 ( +29793) 1239146 ( +24718)
Sun 10 May 2020 256657 ( +1819) 3633886 ( +27375) 1262336 ( +23190)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82881 (+1) 77853 (+87)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 3996 ( +1) 81670 ( +0) 77000 ( +1)
Thu 07 May 2020 3997 ( +1) 81670 ( +0) 77001 ( +1)
Fri 08 May 2020 3998 ( +1) 81670 ( +0) 77002 ( +1)
Sat 09 May 2020 3999 ( +1) 81670 ( +0) 77002 ( +1)
Sun 10 May 2020 4000 ( +1) 81670 ( +0) 77003 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 25613 (+185) 250561 (+2260) 154718 (+3085)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 24412 ( +50) 238917 ( +664) 156849 ( +3516)
Thu 07 May 2020 24456 ( +44) 239507 ( +590) 160196 ( +3348)
Fri 08 May 2020 24495 ( +38) 240031 ( +524) 163375 ( +3178)
Sat 09 May 2020 24528 ( +33) 240496 ( +465) 166383 ( +3008)
Sun 10 May 2020 24557 ( +29) 240909 ( +413) 169223 ( +2840)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 29315 (+236) 213013 (+1075) 85231 (+2352)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 28175 ( +85) 205057 ( +503) 86586 ( +1819)
Thu 07 May 2020 28251 ( +77) 205510 ( +454) 88326 ( +1740)
Fri 08 May 2020 28320 ( +69) 205919 ( +409) 89985 ( +1659)
Sat 09 May 2020 28382 ( +62) 206287 ( +368) 91564 ( +1579)
Sun 10 May 2020 28437 ( +55) 206618 ( +331) 93062 ( +1498)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 29427 (+693) 194990 (+4406) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 29218 ( +471) 188459 ( +2041) nan ( +nan)
Thu 07 May 2020 29649 ( +431) 190311 ( +1852) nan ( +nan)
Fri 08 May 2020 30043 ( +394) 191988 ( +1677) nan ( +nan)
Sat 09 May 2020 30401 ( +358) 193504 ( +1516) nan ( +nan)
Sun 10 May 2020 30727 ( +325) 194872 ( +1368) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 72241 (+2532) 1236987 (+25149) 199684 (+12648)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 70292 ( +757) 1193663 ( +12276) 201016 ( +7124)
Thu 07 May 2020 70960 ( +668) 1204822 ( +11159) 207775 ( +6759)
Fri 08 May 2020 71548 ( +588) 1214946 ( +10124) 214150 ( +6375)
Sat 09 May 2020 72065 ( +516) 1224115 ( +9169) 220129 ( +5979)
Sun 10 May 2020 72517 ( +452) 1232405 ( +8290) 225708 ( +5579)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 25531 (+330) 170551 (+1089) 52736 (+1365)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 24720 ( +67) 167156 ( +126) 51126 ( +307)
Thu 07 May 2020 24778 ( +58) 167262 ( +106) 51399 ( +273)
Fri 08 May 2020 24827 ( +49) 167351 ( +89) 51641 ( +242)
Sat 09 May 2020 24870 ( +42) 167426 ( +75) 51856 ( +215)
Sun 10 May 2020 24906 ( +36) 167489 ( +63) 52046 ( +190)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 6993 (+0) 167007 (+855) 135100 (+2400)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 6956 ( +49) 161012 ( +184) 130742 ( +876)
Thu 07 May 2020 6999 ( +43) 161171 ( +159) 131512 ( +771)
Fri 08 May 2020 7037 ( +38) 161309 ( +138) 132189 ( +677)
Sat 09 May 2020 7070 ( +33) 161429 ( +120) 132783 ( +594)
Sun 10 May 2020 7099 ( +29) 161533 ( +104) 133304 ( +520)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 5168 (+86) 41087 (+317) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 4995 ( +27) 40631 ( +180) 151 ( +0)
Thu 07 May 2020 5019 ( +24) 40793 ( +162) 151 ( +0)
Fri 08 May 2020 5040 ( +21) 40937 ( +144) 151 ( +0)
Sat 09 May 2020 5059 ( +19) 41066 ( +129) 151 ( +0)
Sun 10 May 2020 5076 ( +17) 41182 ( +115) 151 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 8016 (+92) 50509 (+242) 12441 (+63)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 7872 ( +34) 50108 ( +243) 12141 ( +72)
Thu 07 May 2020 7901 ( +29) 50324 ( +216) 12205 ( +64)
Fri 08 May 2020 7926 ( +25) 50516 ( +192) 12261 ( +56)
Sat 09 May 2020 7947 ( +21) 50687 ( +171) 12311 ( +49)
Sun 10 May 2020 7964 ( +18) 50838 ( +152) 12354 ( +44)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 2854 (+85) 23216 (+495) 4074 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 2824 ( +35) 23193 ( +336) 4027 ( +647)
Thu 07 May 2020 2855 ( +31) 23508 ( +315) 4797 ( +770)
Fri 08 May 2020 2883 ( +28) 23803 ( +295) 5714 ( +918)
Sat 09 May 2020 2907 ( +25) 24078 ( +275) 6807 ( +1093)
Sun 10 May 2020 2929 ( +22) 24333 ( +256) 8109 ( +1302)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 716 (+18) 14431 (+425) 4280 (+185)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 717 ( +11) 13909 ( +136) 4512 ( +190)
Thu 07 May 2020 727 ( +10) 14033 ( +124) 4689 ( +177)
Fri 08 May 2020 736 ( +9) 14146 ( +113) 4853 ( +164)
Sat 09 May 2020 745 ( +8) 14248 ( +102) 5004 ( +151)
Sun 10 May 2020 752 ( +7) 14340 ( +92) 5141 ( +137)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 1795 (+11) 30009 (+28) 25400 (+200)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 1754 ( +6) 29123 ( +15) 24162 ( +91)
Thu 07 May 2020 1759 ( +5) 29135 ( +13) 24240 ( +78)
Fri 08 May 2020 1764 ( +4) 29146 ( +11) 24308 ( +67)
Sat 09 May 2020 1767 ( +4) 29155 ( +9) 24365 ( +58)
Sun 10 May 2020 1771 ( +3) 29163 ( +8) 24415 ( +50)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 7921 (+593) 114715 (+6871) 48221 (+2406)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 8245 ( +392) 120317 ( +6266) 43086 ( +425)
Thu 07 May 2020 8629 ( +384) 126646 ( +6329) 43435 ( +348)
Fri 08 May 2020 9003 ( +374) 133010 ( +6364) 43718 ( +284)
Sat 09 May 2020 9366 ( +362) 139381 ( +6370) 43949 ( +231)
Sun 10 May 2020 9714 ( +348) 145729 ( +6348) 44136 ( +187)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 05 May 2020 6340 (+63) 99970 (+1323) 80475 (+1096)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 06 May 2020 6068 ( +20) 96273 ( +312) 80140 ( +615)
Thu 07 May 2020 6086 ( +18) 96556 ( +283) 80695 ( +556)
Fri 08 May 2020 6102 ( +17) 96812 ( +256) 81196 ( +501)
Sat 09 May 2020 6118 ( +15) 97044 ( +232) 81647 ( +451)
Sun 10 May 2020 6131 ( +14) 97254 ( +210) 82052 ( +405)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.